A snapshot of the electorate

Cross posted at Political Arguments.

So who are these people, these Princes of the Church, who will soon be electing the new Pope? Since the helpful lineup at Catholic-Pages.com is down, I've had to use my smidgen of Italian to decipher the Vatican statistics. Let's look at the numbers:

There are 183 cardinals (in addition to one named in pectore, whose name was not disclosed by JPII) of whom 117 can vote in the conclave. The remaining 66 are over 80 years old and thus ineligible to vote. All but three of the electors were created cardinal by JPII; the remanining three (William Wakefield Baum of the US, Jaime Sin of the Philipines, and the Grand Inquisitor himself, Joseph Ratzinger of Germany) we created by Paul VI. It's been said that JPII created cardinals in his image, that he appointed men of like mind who took a conservative stand on theological issues. Now, conservatism in Church politics is measured not by the American Right-Left dichotomy but mainly by reference to the Second Vatican Council: the more you accept the ecumenical and liberalizing efforts of Vatican II, the more of a liberal you are; the more you want to contain or roll back these reforms, the more conservative.

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The electors come from 52 countries. The largest delegation, as expected, is the Italian, with 20 cardinals under 80; they're followed by the Americans, with 11, and Spain and Germany, with 6 each. Latin America as a whole has 21; Africa and Asia have 11 each, and Australia and New Zealand have one apiece. The question, then, is who will get the Americans' votes, since all US cardinals are presumably aout of the running. The problems of the Latin American Church are different from those of the European and the Asian and African Churches. Latin Americans are concerned with the rise of Pentecostalism among the traditionally Catholic population, while Europeans face a more secular threat to their numbers; a more charismatic Church, with an aggressive populist platform, could stem the Pentecostal tide, but there's little short of a disaster of bubonic-plague proportions that could stop the secularization of Europe. The Asian and African Churches are growing fast, and their principal concern is not Protestantism or secularism, but Islam. Will the Church decide to hold the fort, launch a new offensive, or stage a strategic retreat to the homeland?

All but twenty of the electors are secular priests—that is, they do not belong to a religious order, like the Jesuits, Franciscans, or Benedictines. Of these twenty, four are Franciscans, three Jesuits, and three Salesians; only one (Schönborn, from Austria) is a Dominican. This may or may not be relevant, because of the "Opus Dei" factor. The Opus, which was founded in 1928 by a reactionary Spaniard and served effectively as the national church of the Francisco Franco dictatorship, is a very conservative, secretive, conspiratorial entity. It's organizational structure is different from that of any other order; it is a "personal prelature" of the Church. JPII has showered them with favors, not the least of which was the elevation to sainthood of Josémaría Escriv´, their founder, in one of the quickest canonizations in the history of the modern Church. The Opus has provoked a firce reaction, and has even been labeled a dangerous cult by some, such as the Opus Dei Awareness Network (ODAN). Opposition to—or retrenchment of—the influence of the Opus may play a role in the election.

The Jesuits have not fared too well under JPII, or rather, they haven't fared as well as they'd hoped (althought they are still the largest order in the Church, and one of the richest and most influential). They were the darlings of the Church in previous years: the best educated, most world-savvy, most efficient force under Papal control. Their General Superior was dubbed the "Black Pope" becsue of his vestments and perceived influence. But they are officially and fiercely independent of episcopal control, and produce consistently eloquent and provocative theological, social, and political commentary which doesn't always sit well with JPII and Cardinal Ratzinger. They were also among the chief advocates of Vatican II, and were thus maligned by JPII in favor of the Opus. I can assure you that the Jesuits have neither forgotten nor forgiven the slight.

¶ In the interest of full disclosure, I am an alumn of a Jesuit high-school, and remain especially fond of the Society. Even after my break with Catholicism (back in 1989) I can honestly say that I don't believe in God... but I believe in the Society. It is a sentiment that many of my fellow alumni share.

The last demographic criterion is the Curia/diocese split. Most of the cardinals, from what I've seen, are also archbishops, and may thus have an interest in being given latitude in the administration of their affairs. The reaction to JPII's reign may not be in the direction of liberalization of doctrine, but rather in the direction of decentralization. JPII had what some have called an "Imperial Papacy," which gathered many administrative and theological functions in the Roman Curia. Some bishops, especially in the US, may desire a freer hand. Decentralization may also allow the Church to adop differenr stances regarding the problems faced in different part of the world. More political latitude may be desired by the Latin American cardinals (whose stance on social justice is undermined by the Vatican's suppression of liberation theology) or by the American cardinals (who need to tread a slippery path between their more liberal—and dwindling—urban faithful and their more traditional immigrant congregations. Interestingly enough, the Roman Curia may be better poised to loosen the reins of the Vatican's authority. Wojtyla, after all, was an archbishop and a foreigner. Federalism—or its Catholic equivalent—may be the decisive factor in the papal election. Would that it were so here!

For those looking for more detailed looks at the "candidates," the National Catholic Reporter is a good source. Their links on the coming conclave are interesting and critical. If you read Italian, go to La Repubblica, which seems to have better coverage than Corriere della Sera. But the Corriere does have a handy list of cardinals, with birthdate, country and current office.